Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. Statistical models by Nate Silver, Jay Boice, Neil Paine, Ryan Best and Holly Fuong. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of The NBA.ĭesign and development by Ryan Best and Jay Boice. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values.ĭownload data. Elo ratings - which power the pure Elo forecast - are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Dallas is 16-13-1 against the spread and 20-10 overall when it scores more than 112.8 points. The Mavericks’ 113.1 points per game are just 0.3 more points than the 112.8 the Nuggets allow. A team’s current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. When Dallas allows fewer than 117.1 points, it is 19-21-3 against the spread and 28-15 overall. A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts - tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions - to generate talent estimates for each team. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
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